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Research and Partnerships

Enrollment Planning Research

Enrollment Planning works with internal departments and external partners to share data and plan for changes in Seattle Public Schools enrollment. This work involves understanding demographic changes, potential racial equity impacts on schools, and understanding external factors that impact school enrollment.

Investigating Enrollment Patterns and Family Decision-Making in Seattle Public Schools

SPS has experienced declining enrollment since COVID-19 like many other districts across the country. This report collects and analyzes qualitative and quantitative data about the multiple factors influencing enrollment decline. 

Report Details
  • Goal of report: Understand the factors contributing to enrollment decline in Seattle Public Schools (SPS), and the implications these factors have for a sustainable, high-quality, and equitable school district in the future
  • Methods: 1) Conducted a representative survey of caretakers; 2) Analyzed trends in enrollment decline in Seattle, neighboring districts, and similar cities; and 3) Analyzed data from external factors, like household mobility data
  • Survey information: Strategies 360 conducted a representative survey (offered in English, Spanish, Cantonese, Vietnamese, Somali, and Amharic) by gender, race, and geography of caretakers of former and current students. A non-representative survey was conducted of caretakers of students who have never attended SPS. All survey participants reside in Seattle due to cost and feasibility constraints. The survey collected 1,420 responses achieved by contacting approximately 125,000 adults.
  • Full executive summary

Overview of survey results
  • Satisfaction with SPS: Among current students, 86% are satisfied with SPS. 66% of former students and 53% of students who have never attended are dissatisfied with SPS.
  • What people like about SPS (in order of prevalence, similar among current and former students): Sense of belonging and community, dedicated and caring teachers, and proximity of school to home
  • What people dislike about SPS (in order of prevalence, similar among current and former students): Concerns about the quality of education and curriculum overcrowded classrooms, lack of funding and overcrowding
  • Reasons to potentially disenroll (in order of prevalence among current students): Concerns about quality of education, a better option available, sense of lack of safety, and curriculum being taught
  • Most important future priority for SPS (in order of prevalence among current students): Improvements to educational quality and increasing funding while reducing class size and improving school operations
  • Two out of five caretakers of former students said they would not consider re-enrolling in SPS. Those who were more open to re-enrolling cited improvements to academic rigor more than any other factors as a reason to re-enroll.
Indicators of enrollment decline
  • Shrinking kindergarten class: The rate of children born in Seattle who enroll in kindergarten has dropped significantly since 2012. Kindergarten cohort sizes have declined steadily: the 2023 cohort was 3,714 students compared to a pre-COVID average kindergarten cohort size of 4,668 students. This shrinking kindergarten class accounts for most of SPS’s enrollment decline.
  • Decline in households with children: Households with children in Seattle have declined by 16% since 2017. Almost 70% of these households with children that left Seattle moved out of state, while 15% relocated elsewhere in King County.
Factors not contributing to enrollment decline
  • Percentage of leaving students has remained stable: The percentage of students leaving since 2011 has fluctuated between 5% and 7% of total enrollment
  • Private school enrollment change: Between 2019 and 2023, private school enrollment across King County (including Seattle) increased by 3,182 students. During this same period, 11,131 students left SPS. Even if every new private school student across King County came from SPS, this would only explain 25% of the students that left the district during COVID.
Racial equity impacts
  • Black, Native American, and Pacific Islander students have left the district at a higher rate than Latino, multiracial, and white students.
  • Income-subsidized two+ bedroom housing yields the most SPS students. However, there is a significant lack of family-sized affordable housing.

Translated summaries

Full reports

  • Analysis done by the Enrollment Planning team in partnership with MIT researchers of enrollment trends in Seattle, neighboring districts, and similar cities: Enrollment Decline Study
  • Results from a representative survey conducted by an external market research firm of caretakers of current students, students who have left the district, and students that have never attended SPS but live in Seattle: Enrollment Study Survey Findings

External Enrollment and Demographic Trend Forecasts

Demographic Reports

Housing Reports

Additional Resources